Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. The client gave a slightly crooked smile to suggest that I am not only biased but also a Realtor who makes a living by selling properties in Utah. Utah Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin Utah Housing Market Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. Mashvisors Utah housing market forecast 2022 and pretty much all other real estate forecasts for the year have identified Salt Lake City metro area as the countrys hottest housing market-beating other burgeoning areas like Boise ID and Spokane WA. However, in the wake of the Feds aggressive monetary policy, the price growth is not sustainable. Utah has had quite a long history of rapid acceleration where house prices are concerned. Inflation is outpacing most salaries, decreasing the value of the dollar. The Utah housing market is following many of the same patterns observed nationwide. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. But housing costs werent nearly as high back then, Eskic interjected. But what about the increase in interest rates? In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. The Utah housing market does not yet significantly favor home buyers but, given the data discussed in this report, it has certainly shifted away from sellers and into neutral territory. If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. Winter sports are a highlight in Utah. If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. All areas saw average market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022 as well as the fourth quarter of 2021. Prices, though theyre on a downward trajectory, are still up year over year by single-digit percentages at least for now. Housing prices have skyrocketed so much, now more than half of Utah's households are unable to afford the state's median priced home, which for single-family homes was $460,000 in 2021. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Listing activity fell 8.3% from the third quarter, but that wasnt surprising given seasonal factors. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. Price growth rates, especially in 2021, were nothing short of astounding. Imagine earning over $100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able to swing it. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? He has a background in sales and marketing and construction as a Project Superintendent. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. The home was 2,500 square feet, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, sat on a quarter acre lot, and they lived well within their means on a $1,000 a month mortgage payment. As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. Once the Fed slows inflation by continued interest rate hikes, they will have to ease the tightening by making money more affordable and accessible. Home > Blog > Market News & Trends > Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022. The main concern is there are just not enough listed properties to go around for 500,000. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. After a long, over two-year frenzy, Perry said buyers had more breathing room to negotiate prices and complete their due diligence. High-cost areas like San Francisco, he said, will see a 15% price decline. Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. Theycan also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. Reluctant sellers and priced-out buyers, Wood said, will mean 2023 will mark a year of slumped home sales. Get your free online home valuation in only 2 minutes! , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. You can find some of the most distinguished and reputable real estate agents using Mashvisors real estate agent directory. Branca said hes grateful that hes employed, has a handsome income, and while hes sad that the market was so difficult to navigate for his situation, it felt much worse to realize just how many other Utahns the market has priced out. Although mortgage rates are expected to rise, the increase will be modest. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. So its really tough to say, but I think its going to be minimal negative, or negative positive, Yun said. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. Months supply of inventory: 3 - up from 1 in September 2021. In Utah, because of its continued strong job economy, experts predict the states housing market to experience some turbulence in 2023 but come out strong next year. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. must have viewed at least 10 homes in a three month period. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. First-time homebuyers will need to be successful in the 2022 housing market if we are going to see the homeownership rate begin to climb again. 36 days on the market. Thats the story of 2022. For renters, these relentless price increases mean the path to ownership has narrowed even further. For further information about the housing market in your area, please dont hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent. If youre looking to buy or sell real estate in Utah, you want to ensure youre working with a real estate agent who can help you navigate the rapidly changing conditions of the local housing markets. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above listprice indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Buying read more, FastExpert, Inc is a California Licensed Broker. However, the sale volume has decreased significantly in the past year, with 3,219 houses sold in September 2021, representing a 26.7% decline in year-over-year comparisons. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. If one were to understand what the Utah housing market forecast 2022 is implying here is that renters are facing bigger challenges of acquiring their own properties. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. Its going to be tough for real estate agents. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. However, despite the increased inventory in the past months, there were only three months of housing supply available in September 2022, still a long shot away from the five to six months required for a balanced market. The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 27 days compared to the same period in 2021. In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. Moodys Analytics expects a peak-to-trough U.S. home price decline of 10% or a 15% to 20% decline if a recession hits. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. The slate of speakers all sought to help bring clarity to a market that they said has largely been fraught with volatility and uncertainty as mortgage rates, some days hovering around 7%, have squeezed buyers and have brought a rapid end to what had been over two years of a blazing hot market. Year over year, prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other three. After seven years of Salt Lake County sales averaging 18,000 homes, the high prices of 2023 will mean sales will not top 13,000, he predicted, and likely range between 11,000 to 12,000. The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. increase. However, as the level of Utah housing prices outstripped the national average, the demand is bound to decline as salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as property prices. It isnt easy to quantify the benefits of delaying purchasing your primary residence. If you are looking to purchase your primary residence in todays market, then yes, the time to buy is today! Sellers are reducing prices as homes stay on the market longer. However, there is no denying that the rapid increase in interest rates, with more likely in the work before inflation reaches a targeted rate of 2%, has significantly affected it. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. While Eskic said he agrees with Wood about Utahs strong job market, but were operating in a different environment because of the rates and prices.. Since the pandemic began, housing prices in the Beehive State have skyrocketed to the point that more than 50% of households can no longer afford to buy median-priced properties in the state. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Utah Housing Market Forecast, What To Look For In 2022 The housing market in 2021 made the "American dream" feel more and more out of reach for a lot of people. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. Otherwise, the story is similar to many other states, with the number of homes sold decreasing, days on market increasing, and almost half of the listings dropping their price this month (48.9%). An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. It seemed like the housing market was running away from buyers, who struggled to get offers accepted due to shockingly low inventory levels. This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. Heres why, 2021: The year of the shocking home price, Utah made a dent on its housing shortage in 2021 but is still 31,000 units short, Buying a house? In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. The housing market in Utah is still highly competitive since the population continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and the quality of life is high. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. The surge in home prices across the country resulted in many thinking homes were sold for more than theyre worth. RELATED: 'It's daunting:' How housing costs are affecting Utah's ski resort staff Listing prices, rents, and mortgage rates are all expected to climb while income rises. increase. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. He is married with 7 children. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. Will it pop or deflate?, A U.S. housing bubble is brewing. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. However, as the Federal Reserve Bank started using its economic power to fight back against inflation, which has reached a forty-year high, by increasing interest rates, the Utah housing market is beginning to show signs of a significant slowing down. Or if its little more meaningful declines, a 10% decline, take advantage of those because 10 years from now youll see much better conditions.. Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. Given that interest rates more than doubled in less than a year, its impossible for there not to be an impact on the housing market. How far will they fall? A realty sign at a property in the Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. Thats where it gets tough. Agents receive this question at least 10 to 15 times per week. That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. Meanwhile, new home construction. The competition has been made even tougher since the pandemic started, with people from California and Colorado making their exodus to the Beehive State in search of more affordable housing along with a good educational system and a lower cost of living. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Wood, the Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, detailed his forecast report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, explaining why he still feels optimistic for real estate even if 2023 wont be a year of celebration.. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. Median sale price: $611,600. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. Neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy tumbling into the Great Recession. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. Utah Home Sales In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. Even before COVID swept across the world, the Utah housing market was already out of reach for 63% of renter households. If you find it useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. Historically, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with less adverse effects than the other 49 States in the Union. #UPDATE firms predicting that U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023:@FannieMae@Zondahome@JBREC Zelman & Associates@KPMG@GoldmanSachs@MorganStanley@WellsFargo@MoodysAnalyticsTD Bank@CapEconomics@PantheonMacroAmherstING@RedfinYieldstreet. Given the Utah housing market forecast 2022, here are the top real estate markets any wise investor can add to their real estate portfolio. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Utah housing prices down from spring peak but theyre still higher than last year. In his report for Utah, Wood wrote its very unlikely that the recent price run-up represents a housing bubble, though he added, We dont know if a bubble exists until after it bursts. He cited Alan Greenspan, an economist and past chairman of the Federal Reserve, who defined a housing bubble as a prolonged period of housing price declines. Utah home prices remain significantly higher than the national average. Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. It was a year in which a boiling hot housing market saw historic deterioration, as Fortune put it. Utah Housing Market Overview What is the housing market like right now? San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. Search for a realtor or service professional, Already have a FastExpert account? While the market in Utah is feeling a correction similar to the rest of the Nation, it weathered the 2008 recession relatively well and is expected to maintain a strong housing market. According to the Utah real estate market predictions from industry experts, there will be an influx of sellers in the state given the present condition of not having enough supply to meet the markets unprecedented growth. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. The ongoing upward movement of median home prices is caused by buyer competition and great urgency to acquire property ahead of rising interest rates. In January 2023, there were 8,551 homes for sale in Utah, up 81.9% year over year. These factors positioned Utah in the top spot on the Bankrate Housing Heat Index. Their goal is mainly to make a profit from investing in real estate but each of them has different approaches and strategies to achieve their goals. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. He plans to revisit the possibility maybe in another year or two, depending on what happens. Like Salt Lake City, the West Valley City housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average and selling after 41 days on the market. The median sale price was up 5.6% in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but the number of homes sold dropped 26.7%. Focus on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the past 10, 5, or even 2 years! So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. We dont have that.. Rising financing costs will hinder housing demand and we may see home sales cooling. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. Lake Powell can drop your jaw around every bend of the gorgeous reservoir with 200-foot cliffs. Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. Yes! Therefore, although Utah home prices may decline in the coming months, the Utah housing market should remain relatively strong and correct itself for more sustainable growth. For this reason, despite the high median property price, investors in rental properties are most likely to enjoy very good returns. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. Homes on the market: 11,172. Home prices skyrocket amid early pandemic months due to bidding wars and a shortage of active listings. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. The lights shut off. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year. This would place . Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. The governor said his proposed budget should translate to about 1,100 new low-income units across the state. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. 2022 housing market forecast Join Us Right now, the continued rise in both mortgage rates and home price have kept many out of the housing market. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. Wallethub found Utah is the. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022 , he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the. However, the spike in listing prices, mortgage rates, and rents will somehow be offset as income is also expected to rise. You can try RealAdvisor home value appraiser, to get the value of your home in Utah. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. Additional links: Historical Utah Data Economists, consulting firms and other experts all have varying forecasts when it comes to the degree to which home prices will constrict. Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022, Preston Hicks Real Estate Group - JMG Utah, What does exclusive right to sell mean? ange come dine with me page 3 model, melnor sprinkler parts, mandatory jail time for dwi in texas, For more than theyre worth appraiser, to get the value of the Feds aggressive policy! Prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other 49 States in the year in.... Final quarter of 2022 Great urgency to acquire property ahead of rising interest rates get the value of home! Lingering on the market is to be tough for real estate agents saw historic deterioration as! 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